Nakamoto BTC Sale Sparks Risk of Industry-Wide Contagion

• Nakamoto (NAKA) sold 284 BTC for approximately $20 million in March 2025, realizing a price of $70,000 per coin.
• Market analyst Nic Puckrin warns that this sale, combined with losses on Metaplanet shares, could trigger a "contagion" across digital asset treasury (DAT) companies.
• Mining giant MARA also liquidated 15,133 BTC, valued at over $1 billion, to manage convertible debt obligations.

Signs of Stress in Digital Asset Treasuries

Recent moves by Nakamoto (NAKA) have raised concerns regarding the stability of corporate Bitcoin holdings. The company's treasury value peaked at over $711 million in October 2025, a period when Bitcoin reached an all-time high of roughly $126,000. However, the subsequent market shift forced the firm to realize losses.

In addition to selling 284 BTC at a price significantly below the peak, Nakamoto reduced its exposure to Metaplanet, selling shares of the publicly traded company at a loss. According to its 10-K filing with the SEC, Nakamoto ended 2025 with 5,342 BTC valued at $467.5 million. The filing also revealed a $166.1 million loss on the fair value of its holdings during the fourth quarter of 2025.

Analyst Warnings of Industry Contagion

Market analyst Nic Puckrin suggests that the DAT market is beginning to fracture. He points to a decline in net asset value (NAV) premiums during the third quarter of 2025 as a precursor to the current instability. Puckrin notes that geopolitical tensions, specifically the conflict in the Middle East, are likely to exacerbate price pressure on Bitcoin, potentially creating a reinforcing cycle of forced liquidations.

Key indicators of the market shift include:

• A collapse in NAV premiums for treasury companies in Q3 2025.
• Declining stock prices for crypto-treasury firms ahead of the October 2025 market crash.
• A prolonged bear market resulting in significantly diminished digital asset valuations.

Tactical Liquidations vs. Strategy Shifts

While Nakamoto's sales appear to be a sign of capitulation, other major players describe their liquidations as tactical. MARA (formerly Marathon Digital) sold 15,133 BTC in March, generating more than $1 billion. The proceeds were used to repurchase and retire approximately $1 billion in convertible debt.

Robert Samuels, MARA’s vice president for investor relations, clarified that this move does not represent a departure from their long-term treasury strategy. He emphasized that the company may buy or sell assets based on market conditions and capital allocation priorities, but there is no intention to liquidate the bulk of their reserves. Despite these assurances, the scale of selling across the industry continues to weigh on investor sentiment.