Research: 10,000 Qubits Could Crack BTC and ETH Wallets

• Research from Caltech and Oratomic suggests that only 10,000 physical qubits are needed to compromise blockchain encryption, a sharp decrease from previous estimates.
• A quantum computer utilizing 26,000 qubits could potentially crack the ECC-256 encryption standard used by Bitcoin and Ethereum within approximately 10 days.
• While traditional financial encryption (RSA-2048) remains more resilient, the shrinking timeline for quantum threats raises concerns about the long-term security of digital assets.

Advancements in Quantum Threat Modeling

A new research paper published by Caltech and the quantum startup Oratomic has significantly lowered the theoretical threshold for breaking modern cryptographic standards. According to the study, the number of physical qubits required to break the encryption securing major blockchains has plummeted from previous estimates of hundreds of thousands to just 10,000. This development follows a separate whitepaper from Google Quantum AI, which estimated a much higher threshold of 500,000 qubits.

The Oratomic team achieved this lower estimate by applying a neutral-atom setup—where laser-controlled atoms serve as qubits—to Google's quantum circuits. This approach suggests that Shor’s algorithm, the primary method for cracking public-key encryption, could be executed with far fewer resources than once believed. Over the last two decades, the estimated requirement for physical qubits has dropped five orders of magnitude, from 1 billion in 2012 to the current figure of 10,000.

Comparison of Cryptographic Vulnerabilities

The researchers highlighted a significant disparity between the encryption used by blockchain networks and traditional financial institutions. The ECC-256 (Elliptic Curve Cryptography) standard, which secures Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets, is more susceptible to quantum attacks because it utilizes smaller keys to achieve its security level.

Key data points from the research include:

• ECC-256: Can be broken by 26,000 qubits in roughly 10 days.
• RSA-2048: Requires approximately 102,000 qubits and three months of processing time in a parallelized setup.

Because ECC-256 is easier for a quantum machine to process, funds secured by this standard are at a higher risk of being compromised if quantum hardware continues to scale at the current pace.

Risks to the Crypto Ecosystem

Despite the reduced qubit requirement, the researchers noted that a "front-running" or "on-spend" attack—where a quantum computer cracks a key in minutes to intercept a live transaction—is still unlikely under current assumptions. However, the threat to static funds is substantial. An estimated 6.9 million BTC currently held in early wallets or reused addresses could be vulnerable to bad actors using quantum systems to derive private keys and seize control of assets.

While the authors of the paper are shareholders in Oratomic, signaling a potential commercial interest in their hardware approach, the broader scientific community recognizes that the window for migrating to quantum-resistant platforms is closing. The industry now faces the urgent task of upgrading security protocols before the cost of quantum computing decreases enough to make these attacks feasible.