Bernstein: COIN, HOOD & FIGR Stocks Near Bottom Before Q1

• Crypto-linked equities are currently trading at significant discounts, approximately 60% below their recent highs.
• Bernstein analysts suggest a market bottom may form during the first-quarter earnings cycle as valuations decouple from long-term growth.
• Price targets for Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figure have been revised downward, though all three maintain outperform ratings.

Market Correction and Valuation Gap

Research and brokerage firm Bernstein has observed a major disconnect between the current market prices of digital asset infrastructure stocks and their fundamental business growth. Despite a broad drawdown that has pushed many stocks 60% lower than their peaks, the underlying companies continue to expand into high-growth sectors such as stablecoins, prediction markets, and tokenized real-world assets.

Analysts argue that the current selloff is driven by temporary sentiment rather than structural weakness. While they expect the soft sentiment to persist through the Q1 earnings reports, they believe this period will likely represent a cyclical bottom for the sector.

Coinbase: Revenue Diversification and Stability

Bernstein remains optimistic about Coinbase (COIN), maintaining an outperform rating while adjusting the price target from $440 to $330. Although trading volumes have softened in the short term, the firm projects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 26% through 2027.

A key pillar of this growth is the shift toward non-trading revenue. Bernstein highlights the importance of stablecoin income, noting that Coinbase captures approximately half of the revenue generated by Circle’s USDC. This, combined with expansion into derivatives and subscription services, provides a financial buffer against the inherent volatility of spot trading volumes.

Robinhood and Figure: Growth in New Verticals

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) also holds an outperform rating, with a revised price target of $130, down from $160. Bernstein anticipates 25% earnings growth by 2026, identifying prediction markets as a major future contributor. This segment is expected to account for 10% of Robinhood’s total revenue by 2026, bolstered by its exchange infrastructure and distribution partnerships.

Similarly, Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) is viewed as a leader in blockchain-based tokenization. Its price target was adjusted to $67 from $72. Key performance indicators for Figure include:

• Expected loan origination volumes of $12.8 billion by 2026.
• Monthly originations already exceeding $1 billion as of March.
• A business model focused on on-chain equities and tokenized credit, which is less sensitive to direct crypto price fluctuations.

In summary, while the first quarter may show some earnings softness due to macroeconomic pressures, the long-term outlook for these platforms remains robust as they evolve beyond simple asset trading.