Bitcoin Faces 53% Chance of Staying Below $66K by Late April

• Bitcoin price decline: BTC fell by 8% to a low of $65,530, dropping from the $71,300 level recorded on Thursday.
• Bearish outlook: Options traders now estimate a 53% probability that Bitcoin will trade below the $66,000 mark by April 24.
• Political and economic factors: The exit of David Sacks as the US crypto czar and heightening geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have fueled market uncertainty.

Market Volatility and Mass Liquidations

Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction on Friday, wiping out more than $210 million in leveraged long positions. This downturn coincided with an $18.6 billion monthly options expiry, where approximately 97% of call options became worthless as the price stayed below key strike levels. Investors are now showing a clear preference for protective measures, with $66,000 put options trading at roughly 0.0566 BTC (about $3,730), reflecting a defensive stance among professional traders.

Macroeconomic Headwinds and Geopolitical Tensions

The broader financial landscape contributed heavily to the crypto slump. Uncertainty regarding the US economy and the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices surged to $100, while 5-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.07%, up significantly from 3.72% just three weeks ago. These factors, alongside a potential $200 billion increase in US military spending, dragged the S&P 500 to its lowest point since September 2025.

Policy Uncertainty and Shifting Sentiment

Internal US policy changes have also impacted investor confidence. David Sacks has stepped down from his position as the crypto and AI czar for the Trump administration, though he remains an advisor on the President’s Council on Science & Technology. His departure, combined with a lack of concrete progress on a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, has left many investors skeptical. The Bitcoin options delta skew reached 15% on Friday, a sharp increase from the balanced range of -6% to +6%, indicating that whales are paying a premium for downside protection.

Weekend Outlook and Potential Recovery

Some market participants, including X user WhalePanda, suggested that the sell-off reflects fear of further geopolitical escalation over the weekend. However, the current bearish sentiment in the options market may be reactive. If a counter-offer to the US peace proposal emerges from Iran, or if no major negative events occur before Monday, the current trend could reverse. For now, the market remains in a "risk-off" mode, sensitive to every new headline.