BTC Signals Late-Stage Bear Market: Key Levels to Watch

• Bitcoin has retraced 44% from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded on October 6, 2025.
• Market sentiment has shifted into "Extreme Fear" with a score of 15, while 40% of the circulating supply is currently held at a loss.
• Realized profits have plummeted by 96% since July 2025, indicating a state of extreme demand exhaustion.

Indicators of a Late-Stage Bear Market

On-chain and technical data suggest that Bitcoin is moving into the final phase of a bear cycle. Analysis from CryptoQuant shows the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has dropped below 0.25, placing the market in what is described as the "hope/fear zone." The Enigma Trader, an analyst at CryptoQuant, noted that current conditions structurally resemble previous bear market bottoms, particularly as roughly 40% of the supply remains underwater.

Glassnode data supports this outlook, revealing that relative unrealized losses have stabilized at 15% of the total market capitalization. This elevated level of fear is typical of periods where the market seeks a definitive floor.

Demand Exhaustion and Profit Metrics

The volume of profit-taking has seen a massive contraction. Entity-adjusted realized profit reached a peak of $3 billion per day in July 2025, but that figure has since collapsed to less than $0.1 billion today. This 96% decline is a primary indicator of demand exhaustion, according to Glassnode.

While some analysts believe the floor may have been established at $60,000, Crypto Dan from CryptoQuant argues that more "consistent and decisive confirmation signals" are necessary before declaring a true bottom. The market remains stuck in a range between support at $64,000 and resistance at $72,000.

Critical Support and Resistance Levels

Bitcoin is currently attempting to hold a support floor around the $70,200 mark, which represents the cost basis for holders of one week to one month. However, this level appears vulnerable. If selling pressure continues, several key downside targets have been identified:

• $62,500 - $60,000: A critical support zone that could be tested if the price stays below the 20-day EMA of $70,303.
• $54,000: The Bitcoin realized price, which historically acted as a bottom in the 2022 bear market.
• Sub-$50,000: Technical analyst CryptoPatel suggests that the higher time frame structure remains bearish, with interest sitting below this psychological barrier.

On the upside, Bitcoin faces significant resistance at $82,200 and $84,000. These levels represent the cost basis for short-term holders who may amplify sell pressure if the price attempts to recover toward those zones.