US Recession Risk Hits 50%: Can Bitcoin Repeat its 2020 Rally?

• Moody’s Analytics has increased the probability of a United States recession within the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs estimates the risk at 30%.
• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has warned of a potential global downturn linked to surging oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
• Bitcoin continues to show a high correlation with traditional stock markets, which are currently viewed as extremely oversold, suggesting a potential for a relief rally.

Rising Probability of Economic Contraction

Market analysts and prediction platforms are flashing warning signs regarding the health of the U.S. economy. Onchain analytics contributor Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that recession odds are now approaching the 50% threshold. Data from the prediction market Kalshi shows that traders now price the odds of a recession at 36%, the highest level since September 2025.

This sentiment is echoed by major financial institutions. While Moody’s Analytics projects a nearly one-in-two chance of a downturn, Goldman Sachs maintains a more conservative but still elevated estimate of 30%. Market participants are increasingly looking toward 2026 as a pivotal year for the potential start of a formal recession.

Energy Prices and Global Instability

At the center of the economic anxiety is the volatility of global energy markets. Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock, recently stated that a global recession is likely if Iran remains a persistent threat to the economy, regardless of whether active hostilities cease. The potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz remains a primary concern for risk-asset markets.

Trading resource Mosaic Asset Company noted that oil prices have jumped 50% above their long-term trend, a technical signal that has preceded or accompanied nearly every recession in the last 50 years.

• A $10 increase per barrel of oil can elevate headline inflation by 0.20% or more.
• Rising energy costs place significant upside pressure on inflation, complicating the outlook for monetary policy.

Bitcoin’s Resilience and Market Correlation

Bitcoin has historically had limited exposure to extended recessions, having existed for less than two decades. However, the 2020 COVID-19 crash provides a precedent; during that period, BTC initially collapsed alongside stocks before embarking on a massive bull run.

Currently, Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities is strengthening. With many analysts describing current stock conditions as deeply oversold, some believe the stage is set for a short-term rally. Mosaic Asset Company suggests that despite the uncertainty surrounding inflation and interest rates, the technical environment is favorable for a bounce in both equities and digital assets. This mimics the recovery patterns seen during previous periods of high macro-economic stress.