Bernstein: Bitcoin Hits Bottom, Eyes $150K Year-End Target

• Bernstein analysts believe Bitcoin has reached its market bottom and is set for a recovery toward a $150,000 year-end target.
• The firm maintains an outperform rating on MicroStrategy, viewing it as a resilient proxy for Bitcoin with a $450 price target.
• Bitcoin has demonstrated strength against traditional assets, outperforming gold by 25% since the start of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Market Trough and Price Projections

Wall Street brokerage Bernstein has informed clients that the recent downward trend for Bitcoin has likely concluded. Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani stated that the digital currency, which was trading near $71,000 at the time of the report, has established a trough and is now positioned for upward momentum. The firm reiterated its ambitious price target of $150,000 by the end of the year.

The recent market correction saw prices drop by as much as 45% from previous peaks. This decline was attributed to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, including sustained high interest rates, geopolitical instability in the Middle East, and fluctuating outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. The report noted that the shakeout was intensified by the liquidation of leveraged positions and profit-taking by long-term investors.

MicroStrategy as a Key Institutional Proxy

Bernstein remains highly bullish on MicroStrategy (MSTR), characterizing the company as a high-beta proxy for Bitcoin. Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the firm holds approximately 3.6% of the total Bitcoin supply, a cache currently valued at roughly $53.5 billion. Analysts highlighted the company's balance sheet as being "pressure-tested" and highly liquid.

Specific financial instruments related to the firm are also gaining traction:

• The STRC instrument offers an 11.5% monthly dividend.
• Trading volumes for STRC have increased by 65% over the last three months.
• This structure helps the company secure long-term capital while minimizing the dilution of equity.

Comparative Performance and Institutional Adoption

Despite the volatility, the analysis points to a shift in market sentiment rather than a failure of fundamental value. A key highlight of the report was Bitcoin's performance relative to gold; since the end of February and the onset of conflict involving Iran, Bitcoin has outperformed the precious metal by 25%. This reinforces the narrative of Bitcoin as a portable and censorship-resistant asset during times of global crisis.

Furthermore, institutional interest continues to support the market floor. Bernstein pointed to the persistence of ETF flows and the expanding role of traditional banks in providing Bitcoin-linked financial services as evidence of growing professional adoption. Unlike previous cycles, the current environment lacks the systemic stress that typically characterizes major crypto crashes.