BTC Holds 2023 Cost Basis Support, Repeating Past Cycles

• Bitcoin has established a strong support level around the 2023 average realized price, currently calculated at $63,700.
• Recent market corrections saw prices dip to roughly $60,000, testing the resilience of long-term investor cost bases.
• While older cohorts remain in profit, newer investors from the 2024-2026 period are largely underwater, with some cost bases exceeding $96,000.

Support at the 2023 Realized Price

Recent on-chain data indicates that Bitcoin is finding significant stability by mirroring the cost basis of investors who entered the market in 2023. This specific metric, known as the average realized price, is currently positioned near $63,700. During a recent local bottom in early February, the market experienced a sharp decline of approximately 50% from the all-time high reached in October. As prices dropped toward the $60,000 mark, this 2023 cost basis acted as a functional floor, preventing further immediate devaluation.

This trend is not a new phenomenon. During the onset of the bull run in early 2023, Bitcoin underwent multiple minor corrections in March, July, and September. Throughout these periods, the price repeatedly found support within the $20,000 to $26,000 range, which aligned with the realized price at that time.

Performance of Recent Investor Cohorts

In contrast to earlier investors, those who entered the market more recently are facing unrealized losses. The cohort of buyers from 2026 began the year with an average cost basis of $90,000, which has since adjusted downward to approximately $77,000. With current trading prices hovering just above $70,000, these investors are effectively underwater.

Detailed cost basis figures for recent years include:

• 2024 Cohort: $81,500
• 2025 Cohort: $96,400
• 2026 Cohort: $77,000

The fact that the 2026 cost basis has fallen below the 2024 and 2025 levels suggests a significant shift in recent buying patterns and price entry points among newer participants.

Historical Floors and Market Outlook

Broadening the perspective to the entire market, the aggregate realized price—representing the average entry point for every Bitcoin in circulation—is currently $54,360. This figure is historically significant, as Bitcoin has typically traded below this level only during the depths of major bear markets, such as those seen in 2011, 2015, 2019, and 2022.

Should the current support level of $60,000 fail to hold, analysts point to the $54,360 aggregate price as the ultimate historical safety net. For the current cycle, however, the market remains focused on the 2023 basis as the primary indicator of near-term price stability.