Bitcoin risks $46K plunge as technical weakness mounts

• Bitcoin failed to secure a weekly close above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), signaling potential structural weakness.
• Analysts identify $46,000 to $47,000 as critical support zones that could be tested if the current downward momentum continues.
• Market sentiment remains cautious, with some experts suggesting the recent climb to $76,000 may have been a bull trap.

Technical Signals and Structural Weakness

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing renewed selling pressure after failing to maintain its position above the 200-week EMA, which currently sits at $68,300. Although the price recovered to $71,190 following an intraday low of $67,300, the lack of a strong weekly close suggests that the recent rally to $76,000 lacked the conviction to sustain further gains. Many traders now view that peak as a possible bull trap.

Market analyst Jelle noted that Bitcoin broke down from a rising wedge pattern over the weekend. Furthermore, analyst Stockmoney Lizards pointed out that Bitcoin has lost the EMA50 once again, citing increased global instability as a factor that could lead the asset to revisit the sub-$60,000 price range.

Potential Downward Targets

If the current technical weakness persists, several analysts anticipate a significant drop. Michael J. Kramer highlighted a bear flag pattern that could lead the price toward a measured target of $46,600. This bearish outlook is supported by prediction market data, where traders see a 70% probability of Bitcoin dropping below $55,000 and a 46% chance of it falling below $45,000 by 2026.

Key levels of interest include:

• $65,500: A local low that previously acted as support.
• $59,930: The range low established in early February.
• $47,000: A deep structural support level.

Holder Cohorts and Cost Basis

According to Axel Adler Jr, an analyst at CryptoQuant, the $68,300 level is particularly significant as it aligns with the realized price of holders owning between 100 and 1,000 BTC. As long as Bitcoin trades above this threshold, this large holder group remains in a relatively resilient position near their cost basis.

However, the realized price for the 10-100 BTC cohort is much lower, sitting at approximately $46,700. This level represents a major structural threshold that would likely only be tested in the event of a significant market regime shift or total deterioration in price action.