Scaramucci: BTC 4-Year Cycle Intact, Q4 Rally Predicted

• Anthony Scaramucci of SkyBridge maintains that Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle remains intact despite increased institutional participation.
• Market volatility was dampened by BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but the traditional pattern of three years of growth followed by a one-year decline persists.
• Price projections suggest continued stagnation for most of 2026, with a new bull market expected to begin in Q4 2026.

The Survival of the Four-Year Cycle

Anthony Scaramucci, the managing partner of SkyBridge, argues that the influx of institutional capital and the launch of Bitcoin ETFs have moderated price swings without eliminating the asset's historical cycles. Under the four-year theory, Bitcoin typically sees upward momentum for three years before entering a corrective phase in the fourth. Scaramucci noted that the psychological sell-off point for many long-term holders occurred at the $100,000 level, contributing to the current bearish trend.

Shifting Expectations and Market Reality

Earlier in 2025, many investors, including Scaramucci himself, anticipated Bitcoin reaching $150,000. These forecasts were driven by a pro-crypto stance from President Donald Trump and a more favorable regulatory environment in the United States. However, the market saw a drastic reversal in October, when Bitcoin plummeted from an all-time high of roughly $126,000 to as low as $60,000, defying the bullish consensus. Scaramucci characterized this as a "garden variety" correction, drawing parallels to the period of apathy following the FTX collapse in late 2022.

Macroeconomic Pressures and 2026 Outlook

Bitcoin's price action has been further pressured by geopolitical tensions, specifically the ongoing conflict involving Iran, which saw the asset drop below $69,000. Additionally, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with the S&P 500, which recently fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time in nearly a year.

Analysts are monitoring several key indicators:

• Potential for a 50% price drop in 2026 if the correlation with traditional equities continues.
• Expected "choppy" price movement through the majority of next year.
• A forecasted recovery starting in the final quarter of 2026 to initiate the next cycle.